A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
